Get the Forecast
Your Essential Tool for Backcountry Safety
How Our Forecasts Are Created
Every day, our team of professional avalanche forecasters works to provide you with accurate, timely information about avalanche conditions in Central Oregon's mountains. Our forecasts are built on three essential pillars of information gathering and analysis:
Field Observations
Our forecasters regularly venture into the backcountry to observe snowpack conditions firsthand. They look for recent avalanche activity, dig snow pits, and perform stability tests, all in an effort to find weak layers that could produce avalanche. These direct observations are the foundation of our forecasts.
Snowpack Analysis
Our forecast team keeps a detailed snowpack and weather history. This allows us to correlate layers in the snowpack with weather events from earlier in the season. The sensible weather that we all feel, also impacts our snowpack. Temperature, cloud cover, precipitation and wind all contribute to variable layering in the mountain snowpack.
Weather Forecast Review
Our forecasters examine detailed weather models and predictions to anticipate how conditions will evolve. Changes in temperature, new precipitation, wind events, and other meteorological factors all influence avalanche danger. We use this forward-looking information to help you plan safe trips in the mountains.
Read Today's Forecast
Check current avalanche conditions before heading into the backcountry
How to Read the Avalanche Forecast
Understanding the avalanche forecast is essential for making informed decisions in the backcountry. While we recommend taking at least an Avalanche Level 1 course to better utilize forecast information, here's a guide to the key components:
The Bottom Line
Every forecast begins with a brief summary written in plain language. This section gives you the most critical information about the day's avalanche conditions in just a few sentences. Even if you've never read an avalanche forecasts, you should be able to understand this section.
Avalanche Danger Ratings
Each day, we forecast how dangerous the avalanche conditions are using the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale. The North American Danger Scale is our best tool to provide the public with information about how likely, and how large, avalanches are anticipated to be. The North American Danger Scale also includes very specific travel advice for each danger level. The single best thing you can do to get more out of the avalanche forecast is to read the travel advice that corresponds to the given danger level. At the Central Oregon Avalanche Center we forecast the danger for three separate elevations: below treeline, near treeline, and at alpine elevations.
Avalanche Problems
This section describes the specific types of avalanches you might encounter. Each problem type has unique characteristics that affect how you might approach terrain selection and decision-making. Common avalanche problems include:
- Persistent Slab / Deep Slab: Avalanches involving weak layers buried in the snowpack that can persist for weeks or months
- Wind Slab: Slabs formed by wind-deposited snow, typically found on lee slopes
- Storm Slab: Avalanches in recently deposited snow during or shortly after a storm
- Wet Loose/Wet Slab: Avalanches that are associated with melting snow, and free water within the snow pack.
- Loose Dry: Release of dry, unconsolidated snow
- Cornice: Overhanging snow formations on ridge crests that can collapse
Aspect and Elevation Graphics
Visual graphics show where in the terrain a given avalanche problem type may exist. We locate these avalanche problems using aspect (the cardinal direction a slope faces) and elevation. Avoiding the slopes where avalanches are most likely leads to a safer day of riding.
Likelihood and Size
For each avalanche problem, we provide information about:
- Likelihood: The chance of avalanches occurring.
- Size: The expected size of avalanches. Avalanches can be small enough that they might not bury or injure a rider, and they can also be so large that they could destroy a house or even a whole village.
Forecast Discussion
The forecast discussion is an optional section where the forecaster might wish to provide nuance to their forecast. Often it will include details that don’t quite have a home in the other sections of the avalanche forecast.
Mountain Weather
Avalanche forecasters spend a lot of time looking at the weather forecasts for the short-term future. This information is critical to the avalanche forecast. It’s also very useful for anyone heading out into the backcountry. In this section, the forecaster is sharing their interpretation of the weather forecast specifically as it applies to our local mountains.
The Avy App - Your Forecast in Your Pocket
Access Central Oregon avalanche forecasts anytime, anywhere with the Avy mobile app. Designed specifically for backcountry users, the Avy app puts critical safety information right at your fingertips.
📱 Offline Access
View forecasts even without cell service. Load the forecast once while connected, then access it offline in the backcountry.
🗺️ Multiple Zones
Quickly switch between different forecast zones across Central Oregon and other avalanche centers throughout North America.
🌡️ Weather Data
Access current weather station data optimized for mobile viewing, including temperature, wind, and precipitation information.
📸 Submit Observations
Report your field observations directly from the app. Your observations are cached and automatically submitted when you regain cell service.
📊 Consolidated Views
All forecast information for a zone is aggregated in one streamlined view, minimizing time spent searching for information.
🔔 Notifications
Receive alerts about significant changes in avalanche danger for your selected zones.
Download the Avy App
Once downloaded, select "Central Oregon Avalanche Center" from the list of available avalanche centers.
Using the Forecast for Trip Planning
The avalanche forecast is your best tool for anticipating conditions before you head into the mountains. Here's how to make the most of it:
- Check the forecast every day - Avalanche danger can change rapidly with new weather
- Plan your route accordingly - The travel advice associated with each danger level is a great starting point. You can also use the aspect and elevation information to identify safer terrain options
- Consider alternatives - Build options into your tour plans so that you don’t get railroaded into poor decision-making
- Combine with field observations - The forecast is a starting point; always assess conditions as you travel
- Communicate with your group - Discuss the forecast and how it applies to your planned route before you leave and throughout the day
- Continue learning - Take courses, read books, and gain experience to improve your decision-making skills
Stay Informed, Stay Safe
Make checking the avalanche forecast part of your backcountry routine
